Impacts of extratropical cyclones on wind and precipitation extremes in Southeastern South America: historical simulations and future projections using regional climate models (CORDEX) and global climate high- resolution models (HighResMIP)

• Grant number: 23/02804-1
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: July 01, 2023
• End date: June 30, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Agreement: CNPq
• Principal Investigator: Tercio Ambrizzi
• Grantee: Tercio Ambrizzi
• Host Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 22/07974-0 - Synergistic effects of climate change and land use on carbon source and sink of Amazon forest ecosystem, AP.PFPMCG.TEM
• Associated scholarship(s): 23/10882-2 - Impacts of extratropical cyclones on wind and precipitation extremes in southeastern South America: historical simulations and future projections using regional climate models (CORDEX) and global climate high-resolution models (HighResMIP), BP.JD

Abstract

The present study aims to understand how anthropogenic activities affect extratropical cyclones in South America and the Atlantic Ocean in a future climate. In particular, we intend to analyze the changes in wind and precipitation extremes associated with cyclogenesis. Specifically, we intend to verify the role of moisture transport from the Amazon in the development of extratropical cyclones. Furthermore, the project will investigate whether the new generation of high- resolution global models HighResMIP (25-50 km) can reach the same level of information provided by the RegCM5 regional model (12-25 km). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time in which regional climate information for South America will be produced using regional and global models with similar spatial resolutions. It is expected to better understand the potentialities and limitations of the models and contribute to studies on climate change and its impacts in South America. This study intends to provide information to the Project "Synergistic effects of climate change and land use on carbon source and sink of Amazon forest ecosystem". (AU)