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Paleo-constraints on monsoon evolution and dynamics


Monsoon systems influence the water supply and livelihoods of over half of the world. Observations are too short to provide estimates of monsoon variability on the multi-year timescale relevant to the future or to identify the causes of change on this timescale. The credibility of future projections of monsoon behavior is limited by the large spread in the simulated magnitude of predication changes. Past climates provide an opportunity to overcome these problem. This project will use annually-resolved paleoenvironment records of climate variability over the past 6000 years from corals, molluscs, speleothems and tree rings, together with global climate-model simulations and high-resolution simulations of the Indian, African, East Asia and South American monsoons, to provide a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and interannual to multidecadal variability (IM). We will use the millennium before the pre-industrial era (850-1850 CE) as the reference climate and compare this with simulations of the mid- Holocene (6000 years ago) and transient simulations from 6000 year ago to ca 850 CE. We will provide a quantitative and comprehensive assessment of what aspects of monsoon variability are adequately represented by current models, using environmental modelling to simulate the observations. By linking modelling of past climates and future projections, we will assess the credibility of these projections and the likelihood of extreme events at decadal time scales. The project is organized around four themes: (1) the impact of external forcing and extratropical climates on Intertropical convergence and the hydrological cycle in the tropics; (2) characterization of IM variability to determine the extent to which the stochastic component is modulated by external forcing or changes in mean climate; (3) the influence of local (vegetation, dust) and remote factors on the duration, intensity and pattern of the Indian, African and South American monsoons; and (4) the Identification of paleo-constraints that can be used to assess the reliability of future monsoon evolution. (AU)

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Scientific publications (21)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
BRIERLEY, CHRIS; WAINER, ILANA. Inter-annual variability in the tropical Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum into future climate projections simulated by CMIP5/PMIP3. Climate of the Past, v. 14, n. 10, p. 1377-1390, . (15/50686-1)
MAKSIC, JELENA; SHIMIZU, MARILIA HARUMI; DE OLIVEIRA, GILVAN SAMPAIO; VENANCIO, IGOR MARTINS; CARDOSO, MANOEL; FERREIRA, FELIPE ALEXANDRE. Simulation of the Holocene climate over South America and impacts on the vegetation. HOLOCENE, v. 29, n. 2, p. 287-299, . (15/50686-1)
RAUPP, CARLOS F. M.; TERUYA, ANDRE S. W.; SILVA DIAS, PEDRO L.. Linear and Weakly Nonlinear Energetics of Global Nonhydrostatic Normal Modes. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, v. 76, n. 12, p. 3831-3846, . (12/06388-8, 09/11643-4, 15/50686-1)
RAPHALDINI, BRENO; MEDEIROS, EVERTON; RAUPP, CARLOS F. M.; TERUYA, ANDRE SEIJI. A New Mechanism for Maunder-like Solar Minima: Phase Synchronization Dynamics in a Simple Nonlinear Oscillator of Magnetohydrodynamic Rossby Waves. Astrophysical Journal Letters, v. 890, n. 1, . (18/03211-6, 15/50686-1, 17/23417-5)
RAPHALDINI, BRENO; WAKATE TERUYA, ANDRE SEIJI; SILVA DIAS, PEDRO LEITE; CHAVEZ MAYTA, VICTOR RAUL; TAKARA, VICTOR JUNJI. Normal Mode Perspective on the 2016 QBO Disruption: Evidence for a Basic State Regime Transition. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 47, n. 14, . (15/50686-1, 17/23417-5)
VERONA, L. S.; WAINER, I; STEVENSON, S.. Volcanically Triggered Ocean Warming Near the Antarctic Peninsula. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 9, . (15/50686-1, 15/17659-0)
BRACEGIRDLE, THOMAS J.; COLLEONI, FLORENCE; ABRAM, NERILIE J.; BERTLER, NANCY A. N.; DIXON, DANIEL A.; ENGLAND, MARK; FAVIER, VINCENT; FOGWILL, CHRIS J.; FYFE, JOHN C.; GOODWIN, IAN; et al. Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate. GEOSCIENCES, v. 9, n. 6, . (15/50686-1)
RAPHALDINI, B.; TERUYA, A. S. W.; RAUPP, C. F. M.; SILVA-DIAS, P. L.; TAKAHASHI, D. Y.. Inference of the topology of geomagnetic field multipole interactions. European Physical Journal-Special Topics, v. 230, n. 14-15, p. 2999-3007, . (17/23417-5, 15/50122-0, 15/50686-1)
RAPHALDINI, B.; TERUYA, A. S. W.; RAUPP, C. F. M.; SILVA-DIAS, P. L.; TAKAHASHI, D. Y.. Information flow between MJO-related waves: a network approach on the wave space. European Physical Journal-Special Topics, v. 230, n. 14-15, p. 3009-3017, . (17/23417-5, 15/50122-0, 15/50686-1)
D'AGOSTINO, ROBERTA; BROWN, JOSEPHINE R.; MOISE, AUREL; NGUYEN, HANH; SILVA DIAS, PEDRO L.; JUNGCLAUS, JOHANN. Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas-Induced Global Warming. Journal of Climate, v. 33, n. 22, p. 9595-9613, . (15/50686-1)
SILVA, CARLOS BATISTA; SIQUEIRA SILVA, MARIA ELISA; KRUSCHE, NISIA; AMBRIZZI, TERCIO; FERREIRA, NELSON DE JESUS; DA SILVA DIAS, PEDRO LEITE. The analysis of global surface temperature wavelets from 1884 to 2014. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 136, n. 3-4, p. 1435-1451, . (15/50686-1, 17/09308-9)
RAPHALDINI, BRENO; TERUYA, ANDRE SEIJI; RAUPP, CARLOS F. M.; BUSTAMANTE, MIGUEL D.. Nonlinear Rossby Wave-Wave and Wave-Mean Flow Theory for Long-term Solar Cycle Modulations. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, v. 887, n. 1, . (15/50686-1, 17/23417-5)
RAPHALDINI, BRENO; RAUPP, CARLOS F. M.. Nonlinear MHD Rossby wave interactions and persistent geomagnetic field structures. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SC, v. 476, n. 2241, . (17/23417-5, 15/50686-1)
MAYTA, VICTOR C.; AMBRIZZI, TERCIO; CARLO ESPINOZA, JHAN; SILVA DIAS, PEDRO L.. The role of the Madden-Julian oscillation on the Amazon Basin intraseasonal rainfall variability. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 39, n. 1, p. 343-360, . (15/50686-1)
RAPHALDINI, BRENO; TERUYA, ANDRE S. W.; DA SILVA DIAS, PEDRO LEITE; MASSAROPPE, LUCAS; TAKAHASHI, DANIEL YASUMASA. Stratospheric ozone and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) interaction with the tropical troposphere on intraseasonal and interannual timescales: a normal-mode perspective. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, v. 12, n. 1, p. 83-101, . (15/50686-1, 17/23417-5)
WAKATE TERUYA, ANDRE SEIJI; MENDONCA RAUPP, CARLOS FREDERICO. Nonlinear interaction of gravity and acoustic waves. TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, v. 72, n. 1, p. 1-17, . (09/11643-4, 15/50686-1)
RAPHALDINI, BRENO; CIRO, DAVID; MEDEIROS, EVERTON S.; MASSAROPPE, LUCAS; TRINDADE, RICARDO I. F.. Evidence for crisis-induced intermittency during geomagnetic superchron transitions. Physical Review E, v. 101, n. 2, . (18/03211-6, 15/50686-1, 13/26598-0, 17/23417-5)
MASSAROPPE, LUCAS; BACCALA, LUIZ A.. Kernel Methods for Nonlinear Connectivity Detection. Entropy, v. 21, n. 6, . (15/50686-1)
PRADO, LUCIANA FIGUEIREDO; WAINER, ILANA; DA SILVA DIAS, PEDRO LEITE. Tropical Atlantic Response to Last Millennium Volcanic Forcing. ATMOSPHERE, v. 9, n. 11, . (15/50686-1)
CIRO, D.; RAPHALDINI, B.; RAUPP, C. F. M.. Topography-induced locking of drifting Rossby-Haurwitz waves. Physics of Fluids, v. 32, n. 4, . (15/50686-1, 17/23417-5)
PRADO, LUCIANA FIGUEIREDO; WAINER, ILANA; YOKOYAMA, ELDER; KHODRI, MYRIAM; GARNIER, JEREMIE. Changes in summer precipitation variability in central Brazil over the past eight decades. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, v. 41, n. 8, p. 4171-4186, . (15/50686-1, 18/14789-9)

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