Fire Dynamics in Savanna Ecosystems: Projections in the Face of Climate Change and Land Use

• Grant number: 25/01431-2
• Support Opportunities: BIOTA-FAPESP Program - Regular Research Grants
• Start date: October 01, 2025
• End date: September 30, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Vânia Regina Pivello
• Grantee: Vânia Regina Pivello
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Alessandra Tomaselli Fidelis ; Christian Niel Berlinck ; Dhemerson Estevão Conciani da Costa ; Dolors Armenteras ; Caroline Lehmann ; Gabriella de Faria Oliveira Damasceno Ribeiro ; Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira ; John Morgan ; Leandro Reverberi Tambosi ; Liam Langan ; Sally Archibald ; Simon Scheiter

Abstract

Research in fire ecology has grown substantially over the past two decades, driven both by the intensification of fire activity - largely attributed to climate change and shifts in land use - and the increasing recognition by researchers and land managers of the potential benefits of prescribed fires for preventing wildfires, particularly in fire-prone ecosystems such as savannas. However, the existing body of knowledge is dispersed across scientific publications, agency reports, and unpublished data held by individual researchers. This synthesis project aims to consolidate critical information to advance our understanding of fire dynamics in savannas, especially in the Cerrado biome, with the ultimate goal of supporting wildfire prevention and fire management strategies. Through a series of collaborative workshops involving experts in fire ecology, savanna ecology, data management, spatial analysis, and ecological modeling, we aim to deliver four key outputs: a) a comprehensive database on fire-related data in tropical savannas, b) a conceptual model on fire dynamics in the Cerrado biome, c) a predictive model for fire risk assessment and management in savannas, d) policy briefs to assist Cerrado managers in implementing effective fire management practices. By developing the database and models using existing data, we will also identify knowledge gaps to guide future research efforts. These outputs will be co-created by the project team, with decisions on parameters and methodologies made collectively. Sub-teams will focus on the specific deliverables, but contributions from all team members will ensure interdisciplinary input and robust outcomes. This project seeks to bridge the gap between scientific knowledge and practical applications, enabling evidence-based decision-making for the sustainable management of both fire-prone and fire-sensitive ecosystems of the Cerrado. (AU)