Development of a decision support system and space weather alerts issue for critical infrastructure protection

• Grant number: 17/00553-0
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Innovative Research in Small Business - PIPE
• Start date: December 01, 2017
• End date: September 30, 2018
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Production Engineering - Operational Research
• Principal Investigator: Amaury Caruzzo
• Grantee: Amaury Caruzzo
• Company: CT&I Decisões e Ações Inteligentes Ltda. - ME
• City: São José dos Campos
• Associated researchers: Antonio João Vialle Cordeiro ; Clezio Marcos de Nardin ; Joana Ramos Ribeiro Gomes ; Joao Carlos Teixeira Soares Filho ; Joaquim Eduardo Rezende Costa
• Associated scholarship(s): 17/25767-3 - Development of a decision support system and space weather alerts issue for critical infrastructure protection, BP.PIPE

Abstract

Space Weather events cover the conditions and processes that occur in space and that have the potential to affect the environment close to Earth, humans or current technological assets. These events are in their absolute majority originated phenomena in the Sun as solar flares that result in mass ejection of solar corona toward the Earth or are disturbances originated in the very unionized portion of the Earth's atmosphere. These two examples may significantly affect the critical infrastructure operations considered as satellite services, communications in the frequency bands reserved for sea and air navigation, power lines, global positioning systems based on satellite, and others. At the same time, the increasing demand for operational information of Space Weather, both governmental as well as private companies, brings a challenge: transform the scientific research results into commercial products to aid the institutions to make a decision for infrastructure protection. However, the Space Weather information (observation and forecasting) has an uncertainty about the risks and impacts of these infrastructures. In this sense, the decision-making under uncertainty using Space Weather information is complex and still a scientific and operational challenge. Therefore, the aim of this project to the PIPE/FAPESP Program - Phase 1 is to conduct a scientific-technical and commercial feasibility analysis for the development of a Decision Support System and Space Weather Alerts Issued for Critical Infrastructure Protection. The project is a partnership with the EMBRACE/INPE program and will develop a multi-methodological technical-scientific approach. The project will merge the modern techniques of monitoring and predict Space Weather events with Operational Research approaches as Problem Structuring Methods, Multi-Attribute Value Theory, Risk Analysis and Decision Analysis under uncertainty. As expected results, this project provided a systematic evaluation of the scientific-technical and commercial feasibility of the proposal and the development of a decision support under uncertainty, with a scientifically innovative approach and applied to the decision problem related to Space Weather information. (AU)