This project analyzes determining factors of credit in Brazil, its history, and its influence on the volume and composition of gross fixed capital formation in Brazil. The investigation will start with a theoretical review of the determinants of investment and credit, in order to establish a line of analysis of the connections between credit and economic performance. Our basic assumption considers that legal and organizational changes in the institutions that govern the credit market interfere in the financing conditions and in the credit offer, with consequent effects on industry performance. The empirical analysis includes (i) the investigation of the structure of the financial market in Brazil and its institutional changes; and (ii) a study of changes in credit and investment in Brazil, and their influences in economic and industry growth, particularly in the period after 1990. This study will consider the econometric analysis of the relationships between credit, institutional change, investment, and industry growth. The analysis will investigate separately the long-term credit sources (BNDES, FGTS, SFH, etc.) and, within these sources, the different industries. This will enable us to investigate the microeconomic and institutional drivers in each segment, separating their contribution from the effects of macroeconomic drivers. The disaggregation will consider, at first, the following segments: housing, farming, primary sector, manufacturing sector, trade, services rendered to families and companies, and public utility services. For the specific case of resources provided by the BNDES, we will develop an econometric analysis using panel data from 45 different industries - classified according to the CNAE code.
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