Full text
| |
| Author(s): |
Ana Lelia Magnabosco
Total Authors: 1
|
| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA/SBD) |
| Defense date: | 2015-05-27 |
| Examining board members: |
Fabiana Fontes Rocha;
Paulo Furquim de Azevedo;
Jose Raimundo Novaes Chiappin;
Antonio Delfim Netto;
Claudio Ribeiro de Lucinda
|
| Advisor: | Fabiana Fontes Rocha |
| Abstract | |
This doctoral dissertation analyzes the determining investment factors and their effects on economic growth of the nations in general and on Brazil in particular. This discussion focuses especially on capital accumulation because this process has accounted for two thirds of Brazilian economic growth. To investigate this question, this study combines three complementary approaches: a theoretical vision, a historical assessment, and an econometric analysis. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first discusses the theoretical determining factors of investment and presents an econometric analysis using international data. The second analyzes credit and investment in Brazil, combining historical and econometric approaches. The theoretical overview provides a basis for the analysis and defines the key variables that influence investment: interest rates, longterm credit, return of capital, and the price of assets. This investigation is based on the premise that institutional changes affect investment because they attempt to preserve the return of both investors and banks. The econometric analysis evaluates the behavior of investment on three levels: international macroeconomic, Brazilian macroeconomic, and Brazilian industries. The international analysis considers a panel of 39 economies containing data from 1995 to 2011. This study employed panel cointegration techniques based on the methods described by Kao (1999) and Pedroni (1999, 2004). The econometric evaluation of the aggregate of the Brazilian economy uses annual data from 1953 to 2013 and cointegration techniques described by Johansen (1995) and by Gregory and Hansen (1996), to assess the possibility of structural changes. The disaggregated analysis uses data from 31 economic industries, from 1995 to 2009, and panel cointegration techniques. The results of the panel econometric evaluations (international and sector) show stable and positive relations between investment, credit and return of capital, and negative relations between investment, long-term interest rate, and real exchange rate, confirming the theoretical principles. The results for the aggregate of the Brazilian economy (time series) confirm positive and stable relations between investment, credit, and return of capital, even when there is a structural change. The historical overview investigates the creation of investment financing mechanisms in Brazil and how they have changed over time. This dissertation analyzes mortgage securities, equity market, the establishment of the National Economic Development Bank (BNDE) and the National Housing Bank (BNH), and the institutional reforms of the 1960s. It also describes the main institutional changes of the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. The historical interpretation of the Brazilian institutional setting and the findings of the econometric analyses suggest that the institutional changes that have taken place over Brazil\'s economic history were essential in making long-term credit again available in the economy. They have also helped to minimize the decreasing trends in the returns of capital. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 12/01683-1 - Institutional change, credit and investment in Brazil |
| Grantee: | Ana Lélia Magnabosco |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |