| Grant number: | 14/06629-0 |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral |
| Start date: | September 01, 2014 |
| End date: | March 01, 2016 |
| Field of knowledge: | Engineering - Electrical Engineering - Power Systems |
| Principal Investigator: | Antonio Padilha Feltrin |
| Grantee: | Joel David Melo Trujillo |
| Host Institution: | Faculdade de Engenharia (FEIS). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Ilha Solteira. Ilha Solteira , SP, Brazil |
Abstract In the last years, several methodologies have been proposed for performing a load forecast in spatial form. Most of them need a large amount of information, hindering their application in studies conducted by the planning departments of the electricity distribution utilities. Furthermore, the spatial forecast results need a preprocessing to be used in expansion planning of the distribution system, discouraging the use of such methods. In order to overcome these difficulties, this research project proposes to develop a spatial load forecasting method that combines the regression and simulation techniques to characterize the dynamic load growth in urban areas, using an available data in distribution utilities and providing as a result the load growth in distribution substation. The simulation of the growth of load density will be developed with elements of fractal geometry to model the space occupied within the urban area. In this simulation, the amount of expected load on subareas in the will be determined through regression techniques. Finally, the spatial load forecasting results will be associated distribution substations through techniques of network flow. This form of visualization is an original feature of this work. | |
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