Water insurance as climate and land use change adaptation tool for optimization of water permits under water transfer conditions

• Grant number: 14/15080-2
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Effective date (Start): October 01, 2014
• Effective date (End): February 29, 2016
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Civil Engineering
• Cooperation agreement: Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES)
• Principal Investigator: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
• Grantee: Guilherme Samprogna Mohor
• Home Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 08/58161-1 - Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Brazil and strategies for adaptation option, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

Recent prolonged droughts make the urgent need to revise the criteria for water permits in Brazil, especially in basins under the effects of water transfer. Water risks insurance is an important mitigation tool, but there is no methodology to adapt this technique to assist the water permit instrument, undergoing an analysis of uncertainties and complementing its effectiveness in reducing the losses from extreme events. Hydrological modelling is the basis for development of these tools, as well as climate projections, which carry uncertainties that must be considered in decision-making. The objectives of this project are: i) coupling climatic, hydrologic and water insurance models using historical data and projections in Brazilian basins, for the permit decision process; ii) discuss and simulate scenarios that relate transposed flows, changes in land use and climate, and indicators of insurance models performance through the application of different hydrological models. The methodology addresses the application of distributed hydrological models, MHD-INPE and SWAT-TAMU under climate change scenarios from the climate model Eta-INPE. The outputs of the hydrological models are applied in the insurance model MTRH-SHS for droughts, resulting in the development of damage curves, of risk aversion curves and demand-reliability curves. The methodology will be applied in donor basins of a water transfer system, the Cantareira System. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

TAFFARELLO, DENISE; SRINIVASAN, RAGHAVAN; MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; BITTENCOURT GUIMARAES, JOAO LUIS; CALIJURI, MARIA DO CARMO; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 22, n. 9, p. 4699-4723, SEP 7 2018. Web of Science Citations: 3.

MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Economic indicators of hydrologic drought insurance under water demand and climate change scenarios in a Brazilian context. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, v. 140, p. 66-78, OCT 2017. Web of Science Citations: 3.

TAFFARELLO, DENISE; MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; CALIJURI, MARIA DO CARMO; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Field investigations of the 2013-14 drought through quali-quantitative freshwater monitoring at the headwaters of the Cantareira System, Brazil. WATER INTERNATIONAL, v. 41, n. 5, p. 776-800, SEP 2016. Web of Science Citations: 6.

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

MOHOR, Guilherme Samprogna. Water insurance as climate change adaptation tool for optimization of water permits. 2016. Master's Dissertation - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos São Carlos.