Mapping of Brazilian sugarcane yield-gap and future projections based on simulation model APSIM-SUGAR

• Grant number: 15/18819-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: November 01, 2015
• End date: October 31, 2016
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Lucas Putti
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Until 2050, world population will increase by approximately 30%. These projections implicate the necessity to increase the agricultural production, which represents a major challenge for the sustainability of the planet. The identification of regions with the higher potential to increase productivity can be made based on the production efficiency. It is known that the projections about the future climate and its impact on agriculture contain a number of uncertainties. In agriculture, one of the tools scientifically accepted for the analysis of impacts of climate change in agriculture is the use of plant growth models (MCP) based on physiological and physical processes. There are several models available for sugarcane, but only two are actually available for final users, APSIM-Sugar and DSSAT / CANEGRO. The APSIM model can simulate biophysical processes in agricultural systems aiming to quantify the economic efficiency and environmental conservation in management practices and decision-making, given the risks involved in agriculture. The model has been used to support the planning of agricultural systems, evaluation of weather forecasting, management and analysis of the supply chain in agribusiness, development of guidelines for waste management, risk assessment in the political and governmental decisions and as a guide for research and education activities (AU)