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Brazilian sugarcane yield-gap: current status and future projection based on climate, soil and water management changes

Abstract

The project aims to quantify the current and future Brazilian sugarcane yield gap taking into account downscaled climate change projections and representative agricultural pathways for the future of sugarcane sector, considering in special the role of trash, nitrogen use and water management changes. The project aims to use at least three calibrated sugarcane simulation models to reduce the uncertainty for future projections. The project will also address the basic research in one of the aspects simulated with crop models: crop water relations in both field conditions (by studying the mulch effects on crop evapotranspiration) and laboratory (by evaluating the drought stress effect on photosynthesis and crop development). Computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) simulations will be conducted to assess how future projections propagates on the Brazilian economy, with particular interest in social aspects and income distribution. The multidisciplinary team of the proposal and the addressed subject will be able to support the formation of a emerging research group involving the analysis of integrated farming systems based on crop and economy simulation models, based on the areas of modeling, agrometeorology, economics, crop science, soils and irrigation of sugarcane. Based on the simulations results, we intend to help on questions related to crop management options, and identify the regional bottom-necks. Current and future yield gap maps would be available on the Internet, as well the economic and social analysis based on CGEM simulations. It is also understood also that the proposal deliverables will support the better understanding regional specificities of Brazilian sugarcane production, support the selection of research priorities, and support public and private decision makers where to invest to overcome regional bottlenecks, improve the cost planning and the formulation of public policies for sugarcane sector. (AU)

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Scientific publications (9)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
IVO Z. GONÇALVES; LEANDRO G. DA COSTA; FÁBIO R. MARIN. Simulando a resposta da produtividade da cana-de-açúcar a reposições da ETc e quantidade da palhada no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, v. 26, n. 8, p. 586-593, . (14/12406-4, 17/20925-0, 14/19410-7, 13/16511-4, 20/08365-1, 21/00720-0)
MARIN, FABIO R.; MARTHA, JR., GERALDO B.; CASSMAN, KENNETH G.; GRASSINI, PATRICIO. Prospects for Increasing Sugarcane and Bioethanol Production on Existing Crop Area in Brazil. Bioscience, v. 66, n. 4, p. 307-316, . (14/50023-0, 14/12406-4)
MARIN, FABIO; JONES, JAMES W.; BOOTE, KENNETH J.. A Stochastic Method for Crop Models: Including Uncertainty in a Sugarcane Model. AGRONOMY JOURNAL, v. 109, n. 2, p. 483-495, . (14/50023-0, 14/12406-4)
FELIPE AUGUSTO ANDRADE SOARES; FÁBIO RICARDO MARIN. Crop-specific technology extrapolation domains for Brazil. Bragantia, v. 80, . (14/12406-4, 17/20925-0)
PINTO NASSIF, DANIEL SILVEIRA; DA COSTA, LEANDRO GARCIA; VIANNA, MURILO DOS SANTOS; CARVALHO, KASSIO DOS SANTOS; MARIN, FABIO RICARDO. The role of decoupling factor on sugarcane crop water use under tropical conditions. EXPERIMENTAL AGRICULTURE, v. 55, n. 6, p. 913-923, . (11/18072-2, 14/50023-0, 13/16511-4, 14/05887-6, 14/12406-4)
MARIN, FABIO R.; ANGELOCCI, LUIZ R.; NASSIF, DANIEL S. P.; VIANNA, MURILO S.; PILAU, FELIPE G.; DA SILVA, EVANDRO H. F. M.; SOBENKO, LUIZ R.; GONCALVES, ALEXANDRE O.; PEREIRA, RODOLFO A. A.; CARVALHO, KASSIO S.. Revisiting the crop coefficient-reference evapotranspiration procedure for improving irrigation management. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 138, n. 3-4, p. 1785-1793, . (17/20925-0, 14/12406-4, 17/50445-0, 11/18072-2, 14/05887-6)
SOBENKO, LUIZ R.; SOUZA, TAMIRES T.; GONCALVES, ALEXANDRE O.; BIANCHINI, VITOR J. M.; SILVA, EVANDRO H. E. M.; SOUZA, LAIS T.; MARIN, FABIO R.. IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS ARE LOWER THAN THOSE USUALLY PRESCRIBED FOR A MAIZE CROP IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL. EXPERIMENTAL AGRICULTURE, v. 55, n. 4, p. 662-671, . (16/17008-2, 16/06363-6, 17/20925-0, 14/50023-0, 14/12406-4)
TAMIRES TELES DE SOUZA; LUÍS ALBERTO SILVA ANTOLIN; VITOR DE JESUS MARTINS BIANCHINI; RODOLFO ARMANDO DE ALMEIDA PEREIRA; EVANDRO HENRIQUE FIGUEIREDO MOURA SILVA; FÁBIO RICARDO MARIN. Longer crop cycle lengths could offset the negative effects of climate change on Brazilian maize. Bragantia, v. 78, n. 4, p. 622-631, . (14/12406-4, 17/20925-0, 17/50445-0, 16/06363-6)
MARIN, FABIO R.; ANGELOCCI, LUIZ R.; NASSIF, DANIEL S. P.; COSTA, LEANDRO G.; VIANNA, MURILO S.; CARVALHO, KASSIO S.. Crop coefficient changes with reference evapotranspiration for highly canopy-atmosphere coupled crops. Agricultural Water Management, v. 163, p. 139-145, . (14/50023-0, 14/12406-4, 11/18072-2, 13/16511-4, 14/05887-6)

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