Investigation of the relation between fuel consumption and CO2 emissions generated by the Brazilian road transportation and economic and demographic variables

• Grant number: 16/13727-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: October 01, 2016
• End date: June 30, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: Nair Cristina Margarido Brondino
• Grantee: Giovanna Gomes Huysmans
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências (FC). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Bauru. Bauru , SP, Brazil

Abstract

This project is a part of a major one, which objective is to model fuel consumption and CO2 emissions generated by Brazilian road transportation from a hybrid system that involves statistical techniques and soft computing. The proposal is justified by the fact that the energy demand by fuel is quickly increasing in Brazil and great part of the fuel comes from nonrenewable sources, what can affect the environment directly and indirectly. By this way, the understanding of the relations between fuel consumption and sociodemographic and economic variables can help in the elaboration process of policies which aim is to optimize the utilization of these resources in a sustainable way. As the problem involves temporal series of several variables, a prior analysis of the causality relation between them must precede the modelling phase. By this way, the main objective of this project is to realize a data analysis from univariate and multivariate Temporal Series Analysis techniques. After evaluation of stationarity and perturbation mechanism, a VAR model will be employed with the aim of to investigate causality relations between the variables and to determinate the number of lags to be included in the soft computing models. The data will be obtained in sites of official agencies like IBGE, Brazilian Mine and Energy Ministry, ANP and FMI.