Improvement of eucalyptus process-based simulations with APSIM model and its use for forest evaluations under present and future climate scenarios

• Grant number: 18/00642-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• Start date: August 01, 2018
• End date: March 31, 2019
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Paulo Cesar Sentelhas
• Grantee: Elvis Felipe Elli
• Supervisor: Neil Ian Huth
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
• Associated to the scholarship: 16/26014-6 - Intercomparison of simulation models of eucalyptus forests and their use to define strategies to increase resilience and productivity in the face of climate change, BP.DR

Abstract

Eucalyptus is the most cultivated genus for reforestation in Brazil and provide renewable resources to produce pulp, paper and bioenergy. This genus is highly influenced by the weather conditions. Therefore, alternatives to mitigate the impact of variability and climate change on Eucalyptus yield are needed. The hypothesis of this project is that APSIM model can be suitable to estimate Eucalyptus yield in Brazil and to evaluate possible strategies to mitigate the effects of current and future climate on this reforestation. The aim of this study is to adapt, calibrate and evaluate the APSIM model for improving Eucalyptus yield simulations and use it to propose strategies for mitigating the effect of climate variability and change in Brazil. For this, experimental yield data from 2012 to 2017 of eight Eucalyptus clones distributed in 25 locations in Brazil will be used to adapt, calibrate and evaluate the APSIM model. Subsequently, historical series of meteorological data (current scenario) from other 25 different producing regions of Brazil will be used to evaluate the impact of climate variability and change on Eucalyptus yield. For the evaluation of future scenarios, five General Circulation Models and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions will be used. From the results, it is intended to develop adaptation strategies to the Eucalyptus plantations in order to minimize the possible negative impacts on forest production.

Scientific publications

(The scientific publications listed on this page originate from the Web of Science or SciELO databases. Their authors have cited FAPESP grant or fellowship project numbers awarded to Principal Investigators or Fellowship Recipients, whether or not they are among the authors. This information is collected automatically and retrieved directly from those bibliometric databases.)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; HUTH, NEIL; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; CARNEIRO, RAFAELA LORENZATO; ALVARES, CLAYTON ALCARDE. Global sensitivity-based modelling approach to identify suitable Eucalyptus traits for adaptation to climate variability and change. IN SILICO PLANTS, v. 2, n. 1, 2020. (18/00642-6, 16/26014-6)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; HUTH, NEIL; CARNEIRO, RAFAELA LORENZATO; ALVARES, CLAYTON ALCARDE. Gauging the effects of climate variability on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across Brazil: A process-based modelling approach. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS, v. 114, JUL 2020. (16/26014-6, 18/00642-6)

ELLI, ELVIS FELIPE; HUTH, NEIL; SENTELHAS, PAULO CESAR; CARNEIRO, RAFAELA LORENZATO; ALVARES, CLAYTON ALCARDE. Ability of the APSIM Next Generation Eucalyptus model to simulate complex traits across contrasting environments. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING, v. 419, MAR 1 2020. (16/26014-6, 18/00642-6)