Electricity and price forecasting in hydrothermal scheduling: models and applications via machine learning

• Grant number: 18/15965-5
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Effective date (Start): November 01, 2018
• Effective date (End): October 31, 2019
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Computer Science - Computing Methodologies and Techniques
• Principal researcher: Wallace Correa de Oliveira Casaca
• Grantee: João Vitor de Moraes Leme
• Home Institution: Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Rosana. Rosana , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 13/07375-0 - CeMEAI - Center for Mathematical Sciences Applied to Industry, AP.CEPID

Abstract

The forecast of hourly electricity demand and its price in the free power market is one of the most important tasks when managing modern power systems of energy scheduling. Improving the assertiveness of this forecast can support government agencies, generators and concessionaires of the energy industry to develop more optimized planning w.r.t. the cost of the electricity for immediate demands, in addition to establishing a safer energy consumption horizon for general customers. In this research, we are interested in investigating both hourly electricity demand and its corresponding price after direct consumption by customers. For this task, we apply modern Machine Learning (ML) models, Data Science machineries and exploratory data analysis tools so as to support the electricity industry in its attempt to formulate more optimized, safer and economical energy allocation plans. To properly conduct our research, three well-established approaches of Machine Learning will be considered: Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and Gradient Boosting. All the ML-driven frameworks will be operated and validated from public databases made available by both foreign and Brazilian energy operators, therefore providing a more in-depth and realistic analysis of the power demand problem while still consolidating partnerships between university and the energy industry.

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

LEME, JOAO VITOR; CASACA, WALLACE; COLNAGO, MARILAINE; DIAS, MAURICIO ARAUJO. Towards Assessing the Electricity Demand in Brazil: Data-Driven Analysis and Ensemble Learning Models. ENERGIES, v. 13, n. 6, MAR 2020. (18/15965-5, 13/07375-0)