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Urbanization and climate change: impact evaluation in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo

Grant number: 18/08833-5
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
Effective date (Start): March 01, 2019
Effective date (End): September 30, 2020
Field of knowledge:Applied Social Sciences - Economics
Principal Investigator:Eduardo Amaral Haddad
Grantee:Karina Simone Sass
Home Institution: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
Associated research grant:14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT for Climate Change, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

The increase in average temperatures and changes in the relative humidity of the air, climate change-related effects, will have severe consequences for the global economy. Such consequences can be even more catastrophic in large urban centers in developing countries, where uncoordinated urbanization, population growth and the lack of resources, characteristic of these regions, tend to widen the effects of climate change. A first step in confronting the currently pessimistic scenarios for these regions is to assess the transmission channels of the effects of climate change, to identify the most affected sectors and population groups, and then to propose adaptation and mitigation policies. The research presented here intends to be one of the tools that enable these actions and it is inserted in the research scope of the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change (INCT-MC), one of the main research network on climate change in Brazil. The objective is the construction of an integrated modeling system focusing on water resources that measures the impacts of climate change allied to urbanization. The integrated system is composed of an economic model and a hydrological model, capable of indicating the main macroeconomic and sectoral effects, and population groups most affected by the future increase of average temperature, reduction of water availability and uncoordinated growth of population and urban areas. The analysis will focus on the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (RMSP), due to its importance for Brazil, and the great potential of propagating the impacts of climate change associated with it.