Analysis of the interannual to multidecadal variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone using past climate simulations

• Grant number: 19/08726-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: July 01, 2019
• End date: June 30, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Agreement: NSF and NSF's Partnership for International Research and Education (PIRE)
• Principal Investigator: Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira
• Grantee: Isela Leonor Vásquez Panduro
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Brasil). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 17/50085-3 - PIRE: climate research education in the Americas using tree-ring speleothem examples (PIRE-CREATE), AP.TEM

Abstract

Understanding climate variability is an important factor for climate forecasting and future climate changes projection. The main objective of this project is to examine the interannual to multidecadal variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), especially over Atlantic Ocean, using products from climate simulations of the millennium before to the pre-industrial era (850-1850 CE), because it represent a long period not affected by human greenhouse gas emissions, and simulations covering the past 6000 years. Specifically, we will examine the causes of trends and variability of the Atlantic ITCZ position and intensity using past and future climate simulations from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We will provide a quantitative and comprehensive assessment of which aspects of the Atlantic ITCZ variability are adequately represented by current models, using environmental modelling to simulate the observations (precipitation proxies). Consequently, by associating past climate modeling and future projections, we will evaluate the reliability of future climate change projections, as well as the likelihood of extreme events at decadal time scales.