District magnitude and party system fragmentation in Brazilian local elections

• Grant number: 19/04711-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: October 01, 2019
• End date: February 28, 2021
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science
• Principal Investigator: Glauco Peres da Silva
• Grantee: Yuri Lucatelli Taba
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 16/14525-6 - Political institutions, patterns of executive-legislative relations and government capacity, AP.TEM

Abstract

Does the increase in district's magnitude size results in higher party fragmentation even at proportional representation systems with a large number of seats being contested? The literature identifies limits to political actors' strategic behavior when district magnitude is higher than five. As a consequence, the expectative is that the positive relationship between the number of seats and the effective number of parties will fade out. To adress this question, this research takes advantage from two different changes in district magnitude for local elections in Brazil executed by the Electoral Court and the National Congress. Using this changes it is possible to apply techniques aiming the causal effects of these increases in district magnitude in contexts where the number of seats is already initially large. Tests measures effects over outcomes that aim to capture the fragmentation in number of parties, pre-electoral coalitions and candidates. Results shows causal effects over the effective number of parties in seats, effective number of parties in votes in the election for the local Executive office, and over the size and number of pre-electoral coalitions. Those results are not consistent through the two changes of district magnitude. This fact, as the absence of statistically significant results in tests considering outcomes that measures the dispersion of votes and party entry, leads to the discussion about different incentives coming from the electoral rules in local elections when compared to those for the national lower house, which usually are the literature's object. (AU)

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

TABA, Yuri Lucatelli. District magnitude and party fragmentation in Brazilian local elections. 2021. Master's Dissertation - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH/SBD) São Paulo.