Political competition at local level and changes in electoral rules: evidence from the São Paulo City Council elections (2012-2020)

• Grant number: 24/16845-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: November 01, 2024
• End date: October 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science
• Principal Investigator: George Avelino Filho
• Grantee: Hector Fernando Dimoulis Sabadell
• Host Institution: Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (EAESP). Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 19/27645-8 - Electoral strategies and public policies: what is the importance of municipalities?, AP.TEM

Abstract

The aim of this research is to assess the impact of electoral rules on political competition at local level in the light of recent changes in electoral legislation. According to the specialized literature, the Brazilian electoral system, governed by open-list proportional rules in districts of high magnitude, would stimulate intra-party competition and individual action by politicians (Ames, 2003; Mainwaring, 2001). Under this set of rules, candidates from the same party would be competing for the same votes, since it is the candidate's individual performance that determines their position on the list (Carey and Shugart, 1995; Shugart, Valdini and Suominen, 2005). According to Barry Ames (2003), candidates for federal deputy seek to obtain the maximum number of votes, spending the minimum amount of resources, especially concentrating their votes. Unlike systems with districts equal in magnitude to one - such as the US system - in proportional systems of high magnitude it is possible to be elected by securing small slices of the electorate. Therefore, the main strategy to be adopted by a candidate seeking election would be to create "informal districts" and concentrate all their efforts in these strongholds. The aim of this research will be to advance this debate by assessing the impact of electoral rules on political competition at local level. More specifically, we will assess how recent changes in electoral legislation have impacted on the strategies adopted by city council candidates in the city of São Paulo between 2012 and 2020. The choice of the local level and the period in question is appropriate for several reasons. Unlike elections for federal deputies, in which the districts are territorially large, candidates for city council seek votes in spatially reduced territories. In this context, do they also seek to concentrate their efforts in a few neighborhoods, creating their "electoral strongholds", or do they spread their efforts throughout the city? As for the period selected (2012-2020), it is interesting because it coincides with changes in electoral legislation. During the 2012 elections, candidates could receive campaign donations from companies, and parties could enter into coalitions. In the 2016 elections, corporate funding was banned and, in 2020, the ban on coalitions in proportional slates will apply. With these changes over time, it will be possible to assess the impact of these changes on political competition in the São Paulo city councillor elections. The end of corporate funding, in force since 2015, may have affected the profile of candidates and the electoral strategies they adopt. With fewer resources available to finance their campaigns, it is possible that the spatial distribution pattern of votes for city council candidates has also changed. In the case of the end of coalitions, the parties will contest the elections for the Chamber of Councillors individually. Until the 2018 elections, parties that formed coalitions for the majority elections could form coalitions for the proportional elections, as long as the latter were a subset of the former. With the change in legislation, which puts an end to coalitions in proportional elections, the number of parties with representation in the legislature is expected to decrease.