Agricultural yield estimation in Sao Paulo using SPEI

• Grant number: 22/01326-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Effective date (Start): July 01, 2022
• Effective date (End): June 30, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Luiz Felippe Gozzo
• Grantee: Edgar Simkevic Martins Dornelas
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências (FC). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Bauru. Bauru , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Atmospheric conditions are of great importance to agricultural yield. The main variables that impact the yield are precipitation and temperature since they impact water availability both for soil moisture and irrigation. It then impacts the quality of the final product. The objective of this proposal is to analyze how the low moisture during drought periods affects rice, corn, and wheat in the state of Sao Paulo, using the Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from the period 1974-2020. Precipitation and temperature data will be retrieved from the Climate Research Unit TS4.05 dataset, with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°. Yield data will be obtained from the CIDRA-IBGE dataset. From these data, linear regression will provide a model to estimate future yield in given SPEI conditions.(AU)