Estimation and prediction of pollination and associated ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes

• Grant number: 22/07187-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Effective date (Start): August 01, 2022
• Effective date (End): July 31, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Danilo Boscolo
• Grantee: Eduardo Freitas Moreira
• Host Institution: Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 20/06694-8 - BIOTA SYNTHESIS - Nucleus of Analysis and Synthesis of Nature-Based Solutions, AP.BTA.NPOP

Abstract

The State of São Paulo (SP) has an area of approximately 249 thousand km². Half of the crops practiced in the State depend on animal pollination and pest control (e.g., soybeans, coffee, and oranges). The pollination process is responsible for approximately R$ 5 billion of the value of annual agricultural production in São Paulo. Furthermore, SP presents a wide variety of environmental contexts, with regions dominated by extensive monocultures in contrast to landscapes in mosaics of agricultural areas and native vegetation, containing some of the largest remnants of Atlantic Forest and Cerrado in Brazil. Thus, São Paulo is the perfect setting for investigating the role of land-use changes, climate change, and the implementation of native vegetation restoration areas to maintain the diversity of pollinators and agricultural pest regulators. In this context, we have five general objectives, considering all municipalities in São Paulo: (1) to model the spatial distribution of supply and demand for pollination and pest control services for the main agricultural crops; (2) to assess the relationship between the annual productivity of the main agricultural crops and the spatial relationship between supply and demand for pollination and pest control services; (3) carry out future projections and assess the impacts of climate change and land use, based on socio-economic development and greenhouse gas emission scenarios, on pollination and pest control services, considering their consequences for productivity agriculture and the value of production; (4) make projections of the effects of the implementation of native vegetation restoration areas on pollination and pest control services, considering their consequences for agricultural productivity and the value of production. (AU)