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Modeling future scenarios for pollination and associated ecosystem services in face of landscape and climate changes

Grant number: 22/07192-1
Support Opportunities:Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
Effective date (Start): August 01, 2022
Effective date (End): July 31, 2024
Field of knowledge:Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
Principal Investigator:Danilo Boscolo
Grantee:Luara Tourinho de Oliveira Pereira
Host Institution: Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
Associated research grant:20/06694-8 - BIOTA SYNTHESIS - Nucleus of Analysis and Synthesis of Nature-Based Solutions, AP.BTA.NPOP


Pollination and pest control are essential ecological processes for agricultural productivity. In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in the proportion of cultivated areas dedicated to agricultural crops dependent on these services. However, land use changes in natural and agricultural landscapes are among the main causes of decline in pollinator and pest regulator communities. In addition, climate change impacts can increase the negative effects of landscape homogenization and habitat loss, reducing areas suitable for species to survive. The resulting decrease in agricultural productivity can force farmers to occupy larger areas, generating a positive loss feedback of pollinators and pest regulators. This framework represents one of the main challenges for reconciling sustainable development and ecosystem conservation. A possible solution is the promotion of an Integrated Management of Pests and Pollinators (IPPM), which considers the identification of synergies and trade-offs between agricultural production at different scales (i.e. local, regional or global) and the maintenance of biodiversity and its ecosystem services. Understanding these factors allows decision makers to generate clear guidelines for land use planning and management. The loss of species and their ecosystem services is of particular concern in tropical regions, where most of the global biodiversity is concentrated and where species are most vulnerable to global change. Brazil is a tropical, megadiverse and continental country. Each phytogeographic domain and Brazilian cities have different policies to protect biodiversity, different forecasts of impacts under global changes and different types of land use. This proposed project encompasses the state of São Paulo, which has an area of approximately 249,000 km2, being the state with the highest population density in the country. Half of São Paulo's agricultural crops depend on pollinators at some level, such as soybeans, coffee and oranges, which are among the most profitable. The correct management of the pollinators of these crops can represent an increase in the order of R$ 5 billion in the value of the annual production of São Paulo. In addition, São Paulo presents a wide variety of environmental contexts, ranging from highly urbanized regions, dominated by extensive monocultures, mosaic landscapes (with agricultural areas and native vegetation) and areas with a high percentage of native vegetation, containing some of the largest remnants of Brazilian Atlantic Forest and Cerrado. In this sense, this state presents an ideal scenario for investigating the role of global changes and the maintenance of the diversity of pollinators and pest regulators and their services in agroecosystems. This project has four objectives: (I) to map the species distribution of pollinators and pest regulators under the impacts of global changes, for the present and; (II) future, in the extension of the state of São Paulo and its rural properties; (III) estimate the diversity (species richness and beta diversity) of pollinators and pest regulators for each agricultural crop in the state of São Paulo, also for both periods, present and; (IV) future. (AU)

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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
TOURINHO, LUARA; DE BRITO ALVES, SARA MARIA; DA SILVA, FELIPE BASTOS LOBO; VERDI, MARCIO; ROQUE, NADIA; CONCEICAO, ABEL AUGUSTO; AONA, LIDYANNE Y. S.; DE OLIVEIRA, GUILHERME; CAIAFA, ALESSANDRA NASSER; RIGUEIRA, DARY M. G.; et al. A participatory approach to map strategic areas for conservation and restoration at a regional scale. PERSPECTIVES IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, v. 21, n. 1, p. 10-pg., . (22/07192-1)
PORTELA, RITA DE CASSIA QUITETE; TOURINHO, LUARA; DOS SANTOS, THAMYRIS VIANA; VALE, MARIANA M.. Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land-cover changes. Biotropica, v. N/A, p. 10-pg., . (22/07192-1)

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