Modeling the effects of increased CO2 on Seed attributions in the Amazon

• Grant number: 21/14561-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Effective date (Start): November 01, 2022
• Effective date (End): August 31, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Ecosystems Ecology
• Principal Investigator: David Montenegro Lapola
• Grantee: Bruna Roberta Soica
• Host Institution: Centro de Pesquisas Meteorológicas e Climáticas Aplicadas à Agricultura (CEPAGRI). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Global climate change is one of the main threats to biodiversity, affectingecological processes and compromising the provision of essential goods and services for well-beinghuman. High concentrations of CO2 will affect the metabolism of tropical forests and maycompletely change its structure and functioning. The Amazon Forest is one of theecosystems most threatened by climate change and related changesfunctional plants are already being detected. However, an effective replacement of specieswould inevitably be preceded by a limitation in the reproduction of species vulnerable to suchchanges and greater reproductive success than those that would be favored by the new conditionsenvironmental problems. In this sense, this project aims to understand the effects ofincrease in CO2 in the average functional attributes of seeds of arboreal plants in the Amazoncentral, through a dynamic vegetation model that considers functional attributesvariants. Variations in reproductive attributes will be explored (especially the mass of theseed) and its relationships with variations in morphological attributes sensitive to such alteration(especially wood density and plant height). For this, aplant reproduction module in the global dynamic vegetation model of CAETÊ. hopefullythe comparison of the results of the two simulated scenarios (current CO2 and high CO2) indicates thatthere will be a commitment to plant reproduction and, consequently, to the diversity ofplant strategies in the Brazilian Amazon. The results can provide subsidies for thegovernmental bodies for the formulation of norms and control measures for the preservation of theforest in order to guarantee the integrity of its structure and ecological processes, as well as thesustainable provision of goods and services in the Brazilian Amazon in the coming years.