Probability of flooding in the city of Lençóis Paulista - SP using IPMet weather radar and soil moisture estimation

• Grant number: 23/00082-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: April 01, 2023
• End date: December 31, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Demerval Soares Moreira
• Grantee: Thaísa Giovana Lopes
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências (FC). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Bauru. Bauru , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Floods are caused due to intense and/or continuous rains, which exceed the infiltration capacity of the soil and generate surface runoff, causing an increase in river flows. In general, in rural areas they damage crops and in urban areas they cause loss of furniture and appliances, house collapses and even deaths. The main reasons for the occurrence of floods is the inadequate use of the soil, which reduces the infiltration of rainwater and the silting of the river bed.Considering the importance of predicting the occurrence of flooding, this work aims to study the Lençóis River basin to determine the conditions that cause flooding in the metropolitan region of Lençóis Paulista - SP. For this, data from the meteorological radar of IPMet/Unesp installed in Bauru - SP and the product of soil moisture, executed by IPMet, from the surface model JULES will be used. Some cases of flooding in the city, recorded in the IPMet Natural Disasters Database, were analyzed to verify the rainfall and soil moisture conditions in which the floods occurred and from there to construct a Flood Probability Index (IPI) to the city of Lençóis Paulista.