Simulation of the effect of climate change on cassava cultivation in two regions of Brazil

• Grant number: 23/15742-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: January 01, 2024
• End date: September 30, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Guilherme Isidoro Sanches
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Predominantly carried out by family properties, cassava farming is of great importance for food security and job creation in Brazil, especially in the states of Pará and Paraná, where most of the national production is concentrated. However, it is not known for sure how this culture will develop in the face of climate change scenarios (e.g., increased temperature and increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and change in rainfall regime). In this context, it is important to know the effects of future climate scenarios on the growth of cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), in order to assess vulnerability in main producing locations, thus allowing the possible adaptation necessary for the culture. In this sense, process-based modeling can be interesting for simulating scenarios agricultural futures, since the technique is based on the association between the physiological processes of culture and environment, thus helping to adopt more appropriate management. This project therefore has the objective of evaluating the effects of climate change on cassava cultivation in localitiesrepresentative of the two main producing regions in Brazil (Paraná and Pará), simulating scenariosfuture climate conditions with the DSSAT/MANIHOT model and comparing it with the current climate.Furthermore, after the simulations, it is intended to explore possible management options that allow for eventual adaptation from culture to the future climate.