The predictability of nominations and aesthetic film awards in an era of digital transformations and their positive externalities - an analysis from 2000 to 2017

• Grant number: 23/15973-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research
• Start date: July 15, 2024
• End date: December 15, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics
• Principal Investigator: Marislei Nishijima
• Grantee: Marislei Nishijima
• Host Investigator: Ivan Fernandez-Val
• Host Institution: Instituto de Relações Internacionais (IRI). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Boston University (BU), United States

Abstract

Considering the current technological revolution in information technology and communication products, this project investigates whether film award nominations from highly recognized institutions can be explained by specific determinants. In particular, the focus is on the evaluation by professional film critics who aim to provide insights into the quality of films. The motivation behind this inquiry is to determine whether, in the age of social media and decentralized information dissemination channels, professional critics still contribute information about the aesthetic quality of films, given that consumers have taken on a more prominent role in spreading information about film quality through online forums in the form of electronic word of mouth (e-WOM). To achieve this objective, I employ logistic regression models for award nominations explained by professional critics' evaluations, e-WOM, and various other controls, using weekly data collected from renowned websites for the period 2000-2017. I will follow the literature for the treatment of endogeneities. Next, I investigate how award nominations impact film revenue using the event study strategy while also generally following the current literature for endogeneity treatment.