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Stochastic Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete Structures in Brazil

Grant number: 23/13093-9
Support Opportunities:Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
Effective date (Start): April 01, 2024
Effective date (End): April 30, 2027
Field of knowledge:Engineering - Civil Engineering - Structural Engineering
Principal Investigator:Rogério Carrazedo
Grantee:Chiara Pinheiro Teodoro
Host Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil


In the field of Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures, extensive research has explored the impact of corrosion on both concrete and steel materials, as well as the structural responses to resulting damage. With climate change, a pressing concern arises as this phenomenon introduces diverse variables that can accelerate corrosion processes, potentially compromising structures designed under current codes. In Brazil, the nuanced interplay of regional factors results in varying failure probabilities in different cities due to the country's extensive territory and diverse climate scenarios; however, national design standards provide unified design recommendations for reinforced concrete structures. To address this complexity and enhance our understanding, this project aims to construct a comprehensive map of corrosion-induced failure probabilities, considering the influence of climate change. To achieve this, a numerical model using the Finite Element Method based on Positions (FEMP) will be developed, integrating damage mechanics and the consequences of corrosion, such as rebar area loss and concrete cracking. This model will then serve as the foundation for a reliability analysis, employing Monte Carlo simulations to explore diverse scenarios. The main goals are to forecast the behavior of RC structures over time, facilitate the adaptation of design codes to environmental changes in Brazil, and identify potential challenges that could impact both extant and novel constructions.

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