Resilience of integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems to climate change in the Amazon Biome

• Grant number: 24/00033-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: April 01, 2024
• Status: Discontinued
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Animal Husbandry - Animal Production
• Principal Investigator: Carlos Guilherme Silveira Pedreira
• Grantee: Alyce Raiana Monteiro dos Santos
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/10573-4 - Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture (CCARBON), AP.CEPID
• Associated scholarship(s): 25/00477-9 - Using CROPGRO-Perennial Forage model to assess the resilience of integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems to climate change, BE.EP.PD

Abstract

Climate change represents a threat to the stability of agriculture, negatively impacting climate patterns and water resources. Integrated systems, especially those combining crop cultivation, livestock, and trees, are emerging as a promising approach to address climate uncertainties. Our objective is to develop strategies for achieving resilient and sustainable agricultural systems in the face of these challenges. We hypothesize that system resilience increases with the integration of components (livestock, crop, and forestry), making systems more capable of coping with climate variability. We will assess the resilience of animal, forage, and crop production to climate change and through responses to our hypotheses, we will suggest strategies to improve land use. To validate and simulate scenarios, we will use data from a field experiment conducted in the Amazon biome, evaluating four systems: livestock, livestock-forestry, crop-livestock, and crop-livestock-forestry. Global circulation models and Representative Concentration Paths will be used to create climate change scenarios. The APSIM model will be used to simulate forage, soybean, and maize production scenarios. System resilience will be evaluated considering aspects of productivity and production resistance. With model validation and simulations of future climate scenarios, we will propose practical guidelines that can inform new public policies for the agricultural sector. (AU)