Multiple near-optimal solutions for the long-term sustainable energy development

• Grant number: 24/02007-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: July 01, 2024
• End date: October 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: Fernando Ramos Martins
• Grantee: Paula Conde Santos Borba
• Host Institution: Instituto do Mar (IMar). Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). Campus Baixada Santista. Santos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Brazil is crucial to tackling climate change and halting biodiversity loss. However, dependingon the energy transition pathway, large energy infrastructures may cause negative consequencessuch as land use conflicts and deforestation. Also, climate change can affect thepotential of renewable energy, resulting in the inappropriate deployment of new infrastructuresat certain locations. To comprehensively explore these complexities, we propose utilizingthe 'modeling to generate alternatives' (MGA) method embedded within Calliope, a linearprogramming-based energy model that minimizes the cost. MGAexplores the alternatives nearthe single optimal solution, not exceeding 5% from the least cost. By combining four key layers- demand, policy, climate change, and weather data - we will generate 1,600 long-term energysolutions for Brazil. The model and the scenarios rely on an extensive data approach preparedin a pre-processing step. First, we will conduct a simulation and bias correction of wind andsolar resources using ERA-5 reanalysis data. Second, we will use geospatial data to calculatethe availability of lands and, consequently, the maximal capacity of the infrastructure that canbe deployed at the zone. Third, we will investigate the impacts of climate change on the Brazilianpower system by applying factors (CCF) in the wind and solar time series. This proposal iswithin the scope of INCT-Climate Change 2, Energy Security component, which implements amethodology for calculating the CCF for solar and wind energy resources so that this proposalwill provide continuity with the development of adjustments to the Brazilian energy model.Finally, each scenario will be analyzed and categorized according to sustainability and energyindicators.