The influence of Technology and Gender on the accuracy of presidential election survey results in Latin America since the 1980s

• Grant number: 24/07499-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: July 01, 2024
• Status: Discontinued
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - International Politics
• Agreement: European Commission (Horizon 2020)
• Principal Investigator: Janina Onuki
• Grantee: Maria Beatriz Turci Cardoso
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 20/07129-2 - GENDER STI: gender equality in science, technology and innovation: bilateral and multilateral dialogues, AP.TEM
• Associated scholarship(s): 24/21172-9 - Women's representation and political stability: Analyzing the influence of female representation on government stability and democracy in Latin America, BE.EP.IC

Abstract

Pre-election polls, which are fundamental to the electoral dynamic, inform candidates about voter preferences, guide campaign strategies and can be used by parties to mobilize the electoral base, including through the dissemination of false information. Recent trends indicate an increase in the circulation of falsified pre-election polls on candidates' social platforms. For the media, these polls provide relevant content that engages the audience and informs the public about electoral trends, potentially influencing voter behavior, including strategic voting patterns, known as the bandwagon and underdog effects. This study focuses on the accuracy of pre-election polls in Latin American presidential elections since 1980, considering variables such as the adoption of new technologies and the gender of the candidates. The research involves building comprehensive databases of election results and polls, analyzing statistical correlations through linear regressions, and implementing quantitative and qualitative approaches to identify systematic errors and trends over time and across different countries. The ultimate goal is to deepen the understanding of the dynamics that affect the accuracy of polls in presidential elections, especially how gender and technology variables influence the final results of polls.