Economic Changes and Coalition Formation: Data Analysis in Critical Conjunctures

• Grant number: 24/10965-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: September 01, 2024
• End date: April 30, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - International Politics
• Principal Investigator: Lourdes Sola
• Grantee: Rodrigo Pedrosa Lyra
• Host Institution: Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 19/16970-5 - Brazil as a variety of emerging-market democracy: between the agenda of democracy and the agenda of globalization, AP.TEM

Abstract

There is no doubt that the ideology of the ruler in power, which can be determined by the respective political party, is considered a good predictor for a series of public policies. The variation in the ideological spectrum between right-wing and left-wing parties would determine the way governments implement policies and make their choices. The question that arises, in the context of this thematic project, is the following: would ideology be a good predictor to determine the behavior of States in the construction of bilateral economic cooperation, a topic that has been gaining more and more importance since the repeated failures of the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO).All else being equal, the hypotheses and findings found in the literature reported that, in developed countries - capital intensive -, left-wing governments would be more likely to reject economic cooperation agreements; while in developing countries - labor intensive - they would be more likely to accept them. Due to the very nature of free trade agreements (FTAs), which address topics that go far beyond trade itself, new hypotheses deviate from traditional models of trade preferences. In this sense, expectations regarding government ideology and behavior in relation to FTAs are different. The Post-Doc Researcher's proposed activities will follow the evolution of international trade agreements, from the point of view of negotiations within multilateral institutions and proposals made by emerging countries, in particular Brazil, during the period indicated in the research project . The fellow will also work on analyzing the interviews carried out and building databases with a focus on international trade, either by compiling databases available in other institutions or by producing new data that can support the analyzes intended in this project.