Future scenarios of crop yield and water use by sugarcane in Brazil: a multi-model approach for soil management in adaptation to climate change

• Grant number: 24/02381-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: September 01, 2024
• End date: April 23, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Marina Luciana Abreu de Melo
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/10573-4 - Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture (CCARBON), AP.CEPID

Abstract

Population growth and increased consumption of food, fiber, and fuel in a global scenario of climate change puts pressure on the sugar-energy sector to raise production with efficient use of water resources. The aim of this project is to assess the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield and yield components, water productivity, water balance components, and soil available water in a multi-model approach to propose management strategies of the soil adapted to the possible water limitations to the crop in Brazil. Scenarios composed of different combinations of future climate conditions, physical-water properties of the soil and water regimes will be simulated using global circulation models, generic and sugarcane-specific crop models, and simple and detailed hydrological models. Crop biomass productivity and water use will be quantified in each scenario and explained by mechanisms simulated by the models and by estimation methods for soil available water. The main results are expected to be: (i) physical-water parameterization of representative soils from cropping systems in the State of São Paulo to simulate optimal and limiting conditions for sugarcane; (ii) modeling and forecasting soil and plant tolerances and vulnerabilities in climate change scenarios and (iii) formulation of soil management strategies to optimize sugarcane production and carbon removal from the atmosphere with the efficient use of water resources.

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

PEREIRA, RODOLFO ARMANDO DE ALMEIDA; DE MELO, MARINA LUCIANA ABREU; VIANNA, MURILO DOS SANTOS; VAN LIER, QUIRIJN DE JONG; BRUNETTI, HENRIQUE BAUAB; MARIN, FABIO RICARDO. Key genotype and soil parameters for sugarcane growth: A sensitivity analysis of the SAMUCA model in Brazilian agroecosystems. FIELD CROPS RESEARCH, v. 322, p. 14-pg., 2025-01-24. (21/00720-0, 24/02381-6, 21/10573-4)