Theoretical Models of Faunal Connectivity Between Linking Habitats in Deep-Sea Benthic Organisms Along the Drake Passage Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

• Grant number: 24/22839-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: March 01, 2025
• End date: July 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Oceanography - Physical Oceanography
• Principal Investigator: Paulo Yukio Gomes Sumida
• Grantee: Piero Silveira Bernardo
• Host Institution: Instituto Oceanográfico (IO). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 19/12551-8 - Benthic connections of high Southern Latitudes: BECOOL, AP.PFPMCG.TEM

Abstract

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) appears to mainly act as a barrier to genetic connectivitybetween biological communities on either side of the Drake Passage in the Southern Ocean. Evidenceof periodic gene flow events following the establishment of the ACC during the Miocene ispotentially linked to changes in the speed, strength, and direction of this current due to climate changes on a geological time scale. Predictions about global climate are expected to modify the ACC over a much shorter timeframe. This project will be the first to develop a particle trajectory model for semi-benthic larvae using numerical models and particle tracking. The generated model will be tested against results from a related study on the genetic connectivity of benthos based on sampling along the Drake Passage. The amount and proximity of suitable linking habitats (stepping stones) to sustain multiple generations of larvae will be established through particle trajectory modeling along the migratory routes of whales, where whale falls are expected at higher densities than in the surrounding ocean. Expected changes to the ACC will be used alongside these larval dispersal models to explore the fate of deep-sea larvae under future climate conditions. Ultimately, changes in genetic connectivity of populations and fauna between the Antarctic and South American continents will be determined based on scenarios and predictions of global climate change.