Comparison of the CANEGRO and SAMUCA models in simulating future climate scenarios for sugarcane in the state of São Paulo

• Grant number: 24/21823-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: March 01, 2025
• End date: February 28, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Júlia Balaminut Inácio
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Population growth intensifies the demand for food, energy, and fibers, exerting increasing pressure on the agricultural sector in the context of climate change. Sugarcane, essential for Brazil and particularly for the state of São Paulo, is a strategic crop for biofuel, energy, and food production, while also contributing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation. With global warming, simulating sugarcane productivity under future climate scenarios is crucial to identifying management strategies that ensure greater efficiency and sustainability. This study will compare the CANEGRO and SAMUCA simulation models, evaluating their performance under Brazilian conditions and ability to predict crop responses to future emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The main expected outcome is an uncertainty analysis of each model, aiming to support agricultural planning that enhances sugarcane resilience to climate change.