Ecosystem service scenarios through restoration for Payment for Ecosystem Services implementation

• Grant number: 25/00039-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate (Direct)
• Start date: June 10, 2025
• End date: June 09, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Forestry Resources and Forestry Engineering
• Principal Investigator: Roberta Averna Valente B Tolini
• Grantee: Barbara Rentes Barbosa
• Supervisor: Jonathan Rhodes
• Host Institution: Centro de Ciências e Tecnologias para a Sustentabilidade (CCTS). Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR). Sorocaba , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Queensland University Of Technology, Australia
• Associated to the scholarship: 23/04497-9 - Priority areas for implementing payments for ecosystem services focused on water, carbon and biodiversity, BP.DD

Abstract

Land use changes and the conversion of natural landscapes have led to significant ecosystem services degradation, creating a requirement for solutions that restore ecological systems while enhancing human well-being. Payment for Ecosystem Services is an economic tool with the potential to achieve restoration targets, protect biodiversity, and sustain ecosystem services. This project aims to determine habitat quality in terrestrial ecosystems (as a proxy for biodiversity), considering counterfactual scenarios that project restoration in priority areas in a PES program implementation context. We will model current habitat quality using the INVEST model and compare two PES-based restoration scenarios: (1) a conservative, biodiversity-focused scenario targeting priority areas for PES implementation and (2) a feasible scenario that accounts for practical land-use considerations targeting a broader range of priority areas. The model's requirement data incorporates current land use maps from Mapbiomas and future land use projections, which will be generated based on priority areas identified for biodiversity-focused PES. It also includes data on the main threats to biodiversity and the sensitivity of each land use type, which will be determined through expert discussions, and threat accessibility to integrate into the model legally protected areas that have lower levels of impact of threats. By examining quality and quantity changes in habitat quality index, vegetation extent, and spatial patterns through geospatial statistical analysis in each scenario, this research will evaluate whether restoration strategies in the counterfactual scenarios result in significant habitat quality improvements compared to the current baseline. Results will provide strategic insights to guide PES implementation and prioritization strategies and strengthen policies for sustainable land management and ecosystem resilience.