Interaction between sea surface temperature Interannual Variability modes and Madden-Julian Oscillation in southern Africa: model simulations

• Grant number: 25/00588-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: January 19, 2026
• End date: January 18, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Tercio Ambrizzi
• Grantee: Kénedy Cipriano Silvério
• Supervisor: Prof Steven Woolnough
• Host Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: University of Reading, England
• Associated to the scholarship: 22/14424-6 - Interaction between sea surface temperature interannual variability modes and Madden-Julian Oscillation in southern Africa: observations and model simulations, BP.PD

Abstract

Great part of southern Africa (SAF), defined here as African subcontinent poleward of 10°S, experiences generally rainfall during October-March months with a seasonal peak that resembles monsoonlike regime occurring between December and February (DJF) months, in which more than 50 % of total annul mean rainfall tends to occurs. However, monsoon rainfall, which is the lifeblood for the key economic sectors (e.g., agriculture and hydroelectric power) in most SAF countries varies over a range of timescales, that results sometimes in either floods or droughts with profound socioeconomic and environmental impacts in SAF. To better understand this rainfall, and hence improve our knowledge on its intraseasonal variability (ISV), this research project seeks evaluate how selected global climate models simulate the impacts of the interaction of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) with the selected sea surface temperature (SST) interannual variability modes on monsoon rainfall in SAF. For that, the hindcast data retrieved from the UK Met office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecast system version 5 (SEAS5) will be assessed. In doing so, this project besides contributing to improve monsoon prediction, and hence to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of climate variability in SAF, it will also contribute to achieving the UN SDG 13.