Between Alerts and Neglect: Diagnosing Municipal Performance in the Management of Risks and Natural Disasters in Brazilian Capitals

• Grant number: 25/15250-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: November 01, 2025
• End date: October 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - State and Government
• Principal Investigator: Ursula Dias Peres
• Grantee: Anderson Henrique da Silva
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 13/07616-7 - CEM - Center for Metropolitan Studies, AP.CEPID

Abstract

This research project aims to develop an analytical and comparative diagnosis of the institutional performance of Brazilian capital cities in the management of natural risks and disasters, through the lens of state capacity. The central assumption is that disasters are not merely natural extreme events, but rather reflect institutional failures, territorial inequalities, and shortcomings in federal coordination. The investigation is structured around three main axes: the construction of a database with fiscal, institutional, and regulatory data; the development of a synthetic index of municipal performance in disaster and risk management; and the automated analysis of official documents from city governments.To this end, data will be collected from sources such as SICONFI, SIOPE, IBGE/Munic, CEMADEN, STN, and Transferegov, covering the period from 2012 to 2025. Additionally, the project includes the analysis of financial transfers from congressional amendments (both current and capital), assessing their impact on municipal spending structures and priorities. The methodological approach combines statistical techniques (such as factor analysis and latent class modeling) with computational methods of Natural Language Processing (NLP), including Topic Modeling and Sentiment Analysis.Expected outcomes include the publication of two peer-reviewed articles, public availability of the processed databases, and the creation of an interactive dashboard with the main findings by capital city. The project contributes to the academic literature on institutional capacity and local public policy, while offering practical tools for evidence-based governance and intergovernmental coordination. Ultimately, it seeks to shed light on the asymmetries of the Brazilian state and support the strengthening of state action in the face of socio-environmental crises.