Cumulative impact assessment of infrastructure projects: proposals based on modeling land use and cover change and scenarios discussion

• Grant number: 25/19682-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: October 01, 2025
• End date: September 30, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: Juliana Siqueira Gay
• Grantee: Silvia Sayuri Mandai
• Host Institution: Escola Politécnica (EP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 24/15143-6 - Proposals for cumulative impact assessment in the Xingu: recommendations for project planning and permitting, AP.PP

Abstract

Infrastructure projects are key drivers of land use and cover change in tropical regions. The effects of these changes have been extensively explored in the literature, showing the cumulative impacts caused by one or more projects, such as highways, railways, and local roads. However, there is a need to comprehensively and systematically consider the cumulative impacts resulting from multiple projects, as well as a recognized scientific knowledge gap regarding methods, techniques, and the practice of assessing these cumulative impacts in planning and project assessment decisions. Spatial modeling, particularly scenario development, is one of the tools utilized at the science-public policy interface to support more informed decisions in conservation. The study area will be the area surrounding the Xingu River basin, a sensitive region, with high conservation importance due to its significant mosaic of Indigenous Lands and conservation units in the Brazilian Amazon. In recent decades, the region has faced the development of several projects and the proposal of multiple new projects. This research project aims to calibrate and validate a model of land use and cover for scenario projection. The project will test areas of influence and thresholds related to the significance of cumulative impacts resulting from land use and cover change in the region. Furthermore, the trends of change and the proposed scenarios will support recommendations for the follow-up of projects already licensed in the region. Two technical notes and a policy brief will be elaborated in collaboration with the partner institution, Instituto Socioambiental, and the associated institutions, including the Ministry of Transportation, Funai, Ibama, and Rede Xingu+. Additionally, this project plans to publish scientific papers and collaborate with other research projects within the umbrella project.