Integrated Modeling and Predictive Analysis of Flood Risk under Distinct Hydroclimatic Scenarios: A Multidisciplinary Approach with Geotechnologies and Artificial Intelligence

• Grant number: 25/24411-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: December 01, 2025
• End date: November 30, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Physical Geography
• Principal Investigator: Tercio Ambrizzi
• Grantee: José Roberto Amaro Mantovani
• Host Institution: Instituto de Energia e Ambiente (IEE). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 24/00949-5 - Climate Crisis and Disasters Resilience Research Center (CLIMARES), AP.CEPID

Abstract

Global climate change has intensified the occurrence of extreme hydrometeorological events, causing significant socio-environmental and economic impacts, especially among vulnerable populations. This project proposes an integrated analysis of flood risks in three distinct geographical regions of Brazil: Rio Branco (Acre, Northern region), Linhares (Espírito Santo, Southeastern region), and Encantado (Rio Grande do Sul, Southern region). The selection of these locations is based on recent critical flooding events that severely affected these areas, highlighting specific vulnerability patterns. The methodology combines advanced geoprocessing techniques, remote sensing, hydrodynamic modeling, and Artificial Intelligence algorithms to assess natural physical and socioeconomic conditions. The central objective is to develop a methodological approach that allows for simulating flood scenarios, identifying risk areas, and establishing short and medium-term forecasts. The expected results include robust predictive models capable of guiding public policies for urban planning, territorial management, and disaster mitigation, contributing to increasing the resilience of these communities in the face of climate change. (AU)