Profitability analysis of sugar cane suppliers, under risk conditions, in Barretos region, São Paulo State

• Grant number: 09/08627-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: August 01, 2009
• End date: July 31, 2010
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy
• Principal Investigator: Maura Seiko Tsutsui Esperancini
• Grantee: Francisco Carlos de Queiroz
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas (FCA). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Botucatu. Botucatu , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the profitability of sugar cane suppliers in Barretos Region, under risk conditions, considering the changes in the parameters that affect the profitability indicators as Total Recoverable Sugar (TRS) value, the base of sugar cane payment by sugar mills, the sugar cane productivity along the time of crop, around six years and the components of production cost that compounds the cost matrix. The methodology used will be the total operational costs for the provider that owns and uses its own machinery and effective operational costs less depreciation, for suppliers that outsource services, renting the machinery and equipments from the sugar mills. The indicators used for this analysis of profitability are: rates of profitability, net margins and break even point. For risk analysis, will be used the method of the Monte Carlo simulation, to map the risk in both situations. The risk variables to consider are: value of TRS, TRS amount, the costs of inputs, and for machinery owners, also the machinery costs will be evaluated. To assess the risk will be determined the following measures for analysis of the results: statistical measures of net profitability indicators, sensitivity analysis of variables and percentiles of risk. It is expected that the results could provide subsidies for decision making of suppliers about the main variables that affect the profitability of sugar cane suppliers. (AU)