Estimation of spatial risk distribution in case-control studies using multinomial model

• Grant number: 07/07435-1
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
• Effective date (Start): May 01, 2008
• Effective date (End): April 30, 2011
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Epidemiology
• Principal researcher: Ricardo Carlos Cordeiro
• Grantee: Luciana Bertoldi Nucci
• Home Institution: Faculdade de Ciências Médicas (FCM). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 06/05920-7 - Estimability of association and effect measures in spatial case-control studies, AP.TEM

Abstract

Case-control studies make a large contribution to epidemiological methodology, providing an efficient way of estimating population relative risk and attributable fraction. During the second half of the 20th Century methodological evolution was substantial in this area, incorporating diverse and complex sample designs, developing ways of estimating risk and statistical significance in stratified and multivariate designs, better control of confounding variables, identifying interactions in a more precise manner, and also, in particular situations, dispensing control samples to obtain valid results.Even with outstanding developments in geographic information systems and spatial analysis of data in the last 20 years, there still seems to be little use of the spatial dimension in case-control studies, although important studies have appeared in this area, particularly in the field of environmental epidemiology and the so called geographic epidemiology.In view of the above, this project’s theme is to investigate a method: the spatial case-control study using multinomial model, understood as a case-control study which explicitly incorporates spatial location as a covariate of interest and estimates spatial distribution of the risk in function of their severity. This, given the non linearity of spatial distribution for most occurrences of epidemiological interest, implies a sweeping change to the ordinary analytical instrument used in case-control studies.The objectives of this project are in Case-control studies:1.To develop a multinomial logistic regression model (theoretically) to estimate spatial distribution of occurrence risk when occurrences are classified according to their “severity”, this is in contraposition to the binary model which classifies studied individuals as either cases or controls, developing a multinomial treatment, which enables estimation of the spatial distribution of occurrence risk for cases in function of their severity.2.To test the methodological results obtained, analysing the spatial distribution of obesity risk in Campinas-SP.The method used to reach the above objectives will be reading the specialized bibliography, organising seminars for reflection and discussion of topics related to the theme, computational implementation of developed algorithms. The main expected product of this project is methodological development, using multinomial model to consider the severity of the cases in the estimation of spatial risk distribution in case control studies. Furthermore, the computational routines developed will be implemented and the obesity risk in Campinas will be estimated. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

NUCCI, LUCIANA B.; ZANGIROLANI, LIA T. O.; MAFRA, ANA CAROLINA C. N.; DE MEDEIROS, MARIA ANGELICA T.; CORDEIRO, RICARDO. Spatial distribution of the risk for metabolic complications: an application in south-east Brazil, 2006-2007. PUBLIC HEALTH NUTRITION, v. 15, n. 6, p. 1008-1014, JUN 2012. Web of Science Citations: 0.

NUCCI‚ L.B.; ZANGIROLANI‚ L.T.O.; MAFRA‚ A.C.C.N.; DE MEDEIROS‚ M.A.T.; CORDEIRO‚ R. Spatial distribution of the risk for metabolic complications: an application in south-east Brazil‚ 2006-2007. PUBLIC HEALTH NUTRITION, v. 1, n. 1, p. 1-7, 2012.

ANA CAROLINA CINTRA NUNES MAFRA; LUCIANA BERTOLDI NUCCI; RICARDO CORDEIRO; CELSO STEPHAN. Estudo caso-controle com resposta multinomial: uma proposta de análise. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, v. 26, n. 3, p. -, Mar. 2010.