Mathematical model for assessing the impact on the treatment of tuberculosis and AIDS epidemics

• Grant number: 09/08838-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research
• Effective date (Start): September 09, 2009
• Effective date (End): December 08, 2009
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Mathematics - Applied Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: Silvia Martorano Raimundo
• Grantee: Silvia Martorano Raimundo
• Host Investigator: Ezio Venturino
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina (FM). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Research place: Università degli Studi di Torino (UNITO), Italy
• Associated research grant: 04/07075-7 - Immune-epidemiology of infectious diseases: quantitative approaches considering clinical, therapeutic and prophylactic aspects, AP.TEM

Abstract

Despite of mathematical formalism, this project also has an epidemiological focus because by using mathematical models it is possible evaluate the impact of treatment in both TB and AIDS epidemics and strategies for the control of both diseases. The emergence of drug resistant in treated populations is a challenge and needs the tools of complex systems to understand it. Mathematical modelling may help guide the design of treatment programs and also may help us better understand the potential benefits and limitations of prevention strategies. We propose mathematical models to describe the impact of treatment on the dynamics of transmission of both MDR-TB and HIV type-1 epidemics. Study the mechanisms of the emergence of drug resistance during therapy. Analyze the models to determine equilibrium points and its stability. Obtain the reproductive ratio for each strain and establish new strategies of control. Determine the numerical solutions of the systems. Validate the models with data related to both TB and HIV. (AU)