Development of hybrid computational model - agent based and discrete event simulation - for evaluation and planning of animal production: an application in the sheep meat industry

Author(s)

Thayla Sara Soares Stivari Reijers

• Document type: Doctoral Thesis
• Press: Pirassununga.
• Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia (FMVZ/SBD)
• Defense date: 2016-10-03

Examining board members

Augusto Hauber Gameiro; Rui Carlos Botter; Sarita Bonagurio Gallo; Alda Lucia Gomes Monteiro; Rubens Nunes

• Advisor: Augusto Hauber Gameiro

Abstract

Conduct an economic analysis of agricultural production is not trivial, either by its enormous heterogeneity between each production unit, or because it uses many natural resources, some of which are difficult to measure. There are several methods available for calculating the cost of production, which is the key indicator for assessing the feasibility of a project. The challenge is to allow the projection of activity in the productive horizon in the most real and dynamic form as possible. The computer simulation is currently one of the most powerful analysis tools available for planning, design and control of complex systems and is being increasingly used and disseminated. Simulate includes the development of a method of testing by building models of a real system, that seeks to describe behaviors, build theories or hypotheses through noted and predicted future behaviors. The use of simulation models that incorporate uncertainty and probability in animal production can be both an alternative technique - assisting in decision-making, management and livestock planning; as scientific - allowing the evaluation of the research results of effects and identification of limiting that may encourage the development of future research. The model of hybrid simulation - based on discrete event simulation and on agent-based, proposed here - aimed to identify factors husbandry and management criteria that most affect the production of meat sheep. The model of hybrid computer simulation have dynamic and probabilistic characteristics, with events scheduled in time (breeding season, pregnancy, parturition, weaning, fattening, slaughter, etc.) and enough complexity that its agents be adversely affected both in time and in response to the occurrence or not of variables linked to them. The results of the experiments and the scenarios studied showed that among the zootechnical indexes of the sheep, the occurrence of abortion generates a greater impact on the slaughter rate and financially in the net operating margin. However, analyzing the variables for both sheep and lambs, neonatal mortality, up to the lambs\' five days of life, proved to be the fundamental point for the profitability of the activity. The stabilization of the herd was more affected by the presence of adult sheep in the herd, which culminated increasing the number of lambs per sheep. The results of the analysis of the 30-year cash flows, at a minimum attractiveness rate of 6.17% per year, showed that starting the activity with a very small number of sheep was the least interesting scenario, with a negative internal rate of return for the analysis period. The study of the cash flow allowed to assign to 200 sheep as the most interesting initial herd size (IRR = 3.30% per year). Thus, the use of hybrid simulators, based on discrete event simulation and agent-based for studies in national livestock, is presented as a tool with great potential to contribute, to allow knowing the possible outcomes of different combinations of available technology. The model also allows to be used as a study tool and assessment of different technological combinations for the production chain, contributing to the guidance of scientists, assisting their efforts in the development of future research (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 12/10841-0 - Development of a hybrid computational model - agent-based and discrete event simulation - for evaluation and planning of animal production: an application in the sheep production
• Grantee: Thayla Sara Soares Stivari Reijers
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate