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| Author(s): |
Jhonathan Fernandes Torres de Souza
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Master's Dissertation |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola de Artes, Ciências e Humanidades (EACH) |
| Defense date: | 2019-01-31 |
| Examining board members: |
Sérgio Almeida Pacca;
Felipe Aguiar Marcondes de Faria;
Gilberto Martins;
André Felipe Simões
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| Advisor: | Sérgio Almeida Pacca |
| Abstract | |
Climate change policies have established several greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. Among them, the 21st Conference of the Parties of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (held in Paris in 2015) was a milestone for the universalization of international efforts, and the promotion of a regional activism in supporting to the goals proposed by the national determined contributions. In the State of Sao Paulo, in opposition to the national profile, the energy sector represents more than half of the total GHG emissions. Low carbon studies for the energy sector have proposed audacious scenarios based on not yet mature technologies and high renewable energy demand. The present work proposes an alternative GHG mitigation approach, and in addition it analyzes the impacts on Sao Paulos total energy demand, which was not yet entirely analyzed by other regional studies. The study has aimed to produce two low carbon scenarios for State of Sao Paulos energy sector by 2050. The first scenario (LCS1) attempted to verify whether GHG reduction targets can be reached by a conservative approach. The second scenario (LCS2) is exploratory and has aimed to be more audacious than LCS2, through radical measures aiming to the maximum mitigation result. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario has been based on the States final energy demand, beginning in 2015 and forecasted until 2050 with data from the Decennial Energy Expansion Plan. Low carbon technologies for LCS1 have been selected among the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) proven methodologies. The framework has been expanded for LCS2 based on a literature review. On the one hand, three measures proposed in LCS1 would be able to reduce 16% of BAU total emission in the analyzed period; however, emissions remain at least 19% above 2005 baseline emission. On the other hand, LCS2 has six measures able to reduce 69% of BAU total emissions and, from 2044; net emissions would be negative, which enables 5% of total mitigation for other sectors by 2050. The low carbon implementation also reduces total energy up to 2% in the 2050, although there are specific demands, such as biodiesel, that will significantly increase. The work discusses the results vis-à-vis the literature and presents the main barriers imposed to low carbon scenarios, as well as uncertainties and limitations of the analysis. Moreover, it methodologically contributes to future studies that may assess the potential of a conservative approach based on CDM, regarding other regional and sectorial contexts (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 17/02979-5 - Low carbon scenario for the energy sector of the São Paulo State |
| Grantee: | Jhonathan Fernandes Torres de Souza |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |