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| Author(s): |
Thomas Nogueira Vilches
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | Botucatu. 2019-03-06. |
| Institution: | Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp). Instituto de Biociências. Botucatu |
| Defense date: | 2019-02-22 |
| Advisor: | Cláudia Pio Ferreira |
| Abstract | |
We present four different models on the subject of the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases that resulted on five manuscripts sent to publication. All these models, except the last one, consider a heterogeneous structure of contacts between individuals that permits (or does not) the spread of infections in the population. The first study presents an individual-based model in which the social relationships are given by a Watts-Strogatz network in order to study the transmission of two serotypes of dengue virus in this population. The epidemic and coexistance thresholds are obtained using a mean-field approach and a spreading analysis. The second work proposes a metapopulation model of ordinary differential equations to study the transmission of healthcare-associated infections in the Brazilian hospital network. The hospitals are represented by different populations that are connected through the patient refferal and counter-referral system. This network was built using data about the size and location of the hospitals. The model’s epidemic thresholds are obtained, and a sensitivity analysis of these limits is performed. The third work is an agent-based model that analyzes the influence of behavioural changes of vaccinated individuals on the Influenza epidemics. In order to do that, it is used demographic data from Canada, and it is considered an age-dependent contact distribution. We use Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate the enhancement ratio of the epidemic size due to vaccination, and we calculate the per-contact risk of infection through the maximum likelihood estimator. The last work presents an agent-based model to mimics the transmission of Zika virus in a human population and a mosquito population. The model consideres that the fetuses of women that were infected during pregnancy have a risk of microcephaly development. A cost-effectiveness analysis of a potential Zika vaccine candidate is performed, considering that the main goal of this vaccine is to prevent Zika-associated complications. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 15/05220-4 - Mathematical epidemiology through complex networks |
| Grantee: | Thomas Nogueira Vilches |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |