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| Author(s): |
Robson Leandro Mafioletti
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Master's Dissertation |
| Press: | Piracicaba. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALA/BC) |
| Defense date: | 2000-12-11 |
| Advisor: | Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo Barros |
| Abstract | |
This research analyzed the price formation process of the complex soybean so much among market leveIs producer, wholesale, retail and externaI market as well as the main soybeans producers and consumers areas of soybean and derivatives of the internal market. The analysis was accomplished in the period of January 1982 to December of 1999, after it subdivided the monthly prices series in two periods, decade of 80 and decade 90, having as objective to get the changes effect that happened in the decade of 90, with the coming of the commercial opening and larger liberalization of the markets. The defined areas for the study were the main soybean and derivatives producers of the states, Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, São Paulo, Goiás, South of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso and in the externaI market was considered the quotations of CBOT as proxy of the intemational prices. In the study of the complex soybean was evident the great importance that it has on the whole Brazilian agribusiness. So much in the meal production for animal feeding, such as edible oil for the consumption of the internaI population, as in the generation of exchange value. Seventy percent of the production is exported in soybean grains, meal and oil, generating on this last decade around 9% of the total coming exchange revenues of the Brazilian exports. The methodology used to determine the causaI relation among the prices was the test of Granger. After being established the causality sense, the elasticities of transmission of prices was estimated and finally the asymmetry was tested in the transmission of prices. The results shows the speed of transmission of prices in the section, with overlap periods of at the most one month. Only in few cases it happened two or three months period of transmission. That indicates the efficiency in prices transmission among the market levels and between the studied areas. The variation of the prices at the producer level tend to be preceded by the variation that happen at the international market and to the wholesale (as much of oil as of meal). That can be explained by the smallest market power that the rural producer has in relation to the other levels, and the largest difficulty that the producer has to access the information. The prices raise tend to be transmitted more proportionally than in the case of prices decrease in all the studied cases. For the decade of 1980 causality relation was not verified among the prices of the soybean in grain of the external market for the internal. In the meal case, there was relation of the external prices for the internal; however, these relation were unit-causaI and transmission less than proportional. In the oil case, there was no causality relation for the external prices towards the internal prices and it happened bi-causal relation of the prices from the oil to the wholesale and the retail internally. The results found by Aguiar in the study of the complex soybean in the decade of 1980 presented variations of the external prices transmitted more than proportionally to the internal prices. In that way, some changes happened in relation to the results found in this study, as bi-causal relation in the meal market and causality of the external prices towards the internal prices in the oil market. A possible explanation for the differences found is the area of inclusion of the study and the type of causality test used. Aguiar studied the state of São Paulo and used the causality test of Sims. In this study was considered the whole country and the causality test used was Granger. In the decade of 90 there was causal relation of the international prices for the domestic prices, here represented by the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, for soybean in grains. In the meal case, the prices remained being determined in the international market. In Brazil, considering the State of São Paulo and Paraná, meal prices causality is noted in the first meal prices for the second one. That relation didn't happen in the decade of 80. In the oil case, the relation happened in the external prices for the internal and, internally, there was not relation among the prices to the wholesale and the retail (AU) | |