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| Author(s): |
Jhonathan Fernandes Torres de Souza
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola de Artes, Ciências e Humanidades (EACH) |
| Defense date: | 2023-02-01 |
| Examining board members: |
Sérgio Almeida Pacca;
Vanderley Moacyr John;
Marco Quattrone;
André Felipe Simões;
Alexandre Salem Szklo
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| Advisor: | Sérgio Almeida Pacca |
| Abstract | |
Steel and cement industries stand out in the field of climate change because they are among the most energy-carbon intensive and hard-to-abate manufacturing sectors. At the same time, they show high growth rates especially in emerging economies, as the Brazilian case. Although many CO2 reduction scenarios have been individually made for these industries in the recent years, few studies that assemble them in the same model were retrieved from the literature. In the meantime, low carbon (LC) scenarios recently are incorporating the circular economy as a way to expand the analysis in terms of production chain and to identify new business and environmental opportunities. Given the national commitment to combat the global climate change, there is a need to decarbonize steel and cement production by a low-cost pathway, which is consonant with technological conditions in Brazil. Therefore, this research has forecasted LC scenarios until 2050, integrating Brazilian steel and cement industries, based on five circular economy strategies. The model utilized a set of methods as (e.g.) econometrics, marginal abatement cost (MAC), and the Monte Carlo method for uncertainties analysis. The main scenario shows that it is possible to avoid 2.7 giga metric tons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) in the entire period, 52% of the BAU emissions, at an average cost of US$12/tCO2, without the use of disruptive and incipient technologies in Brazil. Through the alternative scenario analysis, the study shows how abatement potentials and costs vary under distinct assumptions, and it have concluded that the composition of the future national power generation is a very important assumption for the model outputs. Regarding the industrial symbiosis, the thesis discusses the possibility of sharing carbon credits between steel and cement, which uses slag (steel by-product) to replace clinker. This carbon trade would contribute to balance MAC among industries. Other issues discussed in this work were the steel and cement production forecast; the limits and barriers to implement each strategy; the land use by steelmaking biocharcoal, the largest potential strategy; and limitations and uncertainties in the model. Research findings can assist the implementation of a low carbon industry that harmonizes economic development with the climate change mitigation. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 18/23439-1 - Environmental and economic assessment of low carbon technologies for the steel and cement sectors in the State of São Paulo |
| Grantee: | Jhonathan Fernandes Torres de Souza |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |