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Mathematical modelling of infectious disease considering heterogeneous age group: a case study of rubella in Mexico

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Author(s):
Cíntia Dalila Soares
Total Authors: 1
Document type: Master's Dissertation
Press: Campinas, SP.
Institution: Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Instituto de Matemática, Estatística e Computação Científica
Defense date:
Examining board members:
Hyun Mo Yang; Francisco Hideo Aoki; José Luiz Boldrini
Advisor: Hyun Mo Yang
Abstract

Infectious diseases transmitted directly caused by microparasites can be described by compartmental models of the type susceptible (X), infectious (H), infective (Y ) and recovered (Z). These diseases are common in childhood, hence the importance in considering the heterogeneous age group. Moreover, the risk of infection may depend on the age at which the disease is acquired, as in the case of rubella, a disease that is usually benign but can cause embryo malformations in infected pregnant women. The heterogeneous age group is considered in the variables X, H, Y and Z and also in contact rate ß, between infectious and susceptible individuals given by a continuous function. Conditions for the existence of nontrivial solution of the system were established. We defined an operator which fixed point was the solution of the equation that represented the density of infective individuals in the age a. We defined R0 as the spectral radius of the Fréchet derivative of this operator at zero The model described was applied to rubella and an adjustment of parameters was performed with epidemiological data on the number of disease cases in Mexico. The effects of intervention through vaccination were studied by dislocating the average age of infection (AU)

FAPESP's process: 08/07837-5 - Mathematical Modeling of Infeccious Diseases Considering Age Heterogeneity
Grantee:Cíntia Dalila Soares
Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master