Space-time analysis of American visceral leishmaniasis in Bauru, São Paulo

Author(s)

Vanessa Aparecida Feijó de Souza

• Document type: Master's Dissertation
• Press: São Paulo.
• Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia (FMVZ/SBD)
• Defense date: 2010-07-07

Examining board members

Marcos Amaku; Ricardo Augusto Dias; Cáris Maroni Nunes

• Advisor: Fernando Ferreira

Abstract

A space-time analysis of human American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) was carried out based on 239 cases diagnosed from June 2003 through October 2008. The georeferencing, taking the census tracts as units, was performed according to information supplied by the Bauru Health Department about AVL patient addresses. The disease spatial analysis showed that cases occurred specially at the urban area of the city. AVL annual incidence rates, considering adopted cases per year and the respective projected population, were calculated, demonstrating that the highest rate was observed in 2006. It was confirmed by the time series analysis, which also resulted the tendency calculation, showing that it was positive during the analyzed moment. The obtained seasonal indices were confronted with data about the citys average rainfall and temperature, which allowed us to infer that months with indices higher than one, were, generally, preceded by rainy periods. The temperature, on the other hand, although is probably related to the infection occurrence at the region, seemingly did not exert influence on the disease seasonality because it was presented without important fluctuations in the period. The cluster analysis, using scan space-time statistics, detected a most likely cluster located in the Southwest and Central city side in 2006. A univariate descriptive analysis, comparing census tracts that presented AVL with those that did not report case disease, was carried out. Although the significant difference observed between both groups, new researchers are needed to confirm the hypothesis that socioeconomic variables were likely infection risk factors in the region. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 09/04074-3 - Spatio-temporal analyses of American Visceral Leishmaniasis in Bauru, São Paulo
• Grantee: Vanessa Aparecida Feijó de Souza
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master