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| Author(s): |
João Paulo Martins Terra Baroni
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Master's Dissertation |
| Press: | Ribeirão Preto. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto (PCARP/BC) |
| Defense date: | 2012-03-09 |
| Examining board members: |
Sérgio Kannebley Júnior;
Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Júnior;
Maurício Jorge Pinto de Souza
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| Advisor: | Sérgio Kannebley Júnior |
| Abstract | |
Since Markwald e Puga (2002) found asymetric relationships between exchange rates and the number of exporting companies, several authors verified the presence of hysteresis on Brazilian exports of manufactured goods. However, the tests used were limited to the inference about the hypothesis, providing little information for policy analysis. This work proposes a methodology to verify the theory, based on Hansen (1999b) panel threshold model and follows the kind of tests concerned about theoric predictions of the model, in which abnormal shocks in the exchange rate can cause changes in price-elasticity. The procedure allows the direct interpretation of the coefficients for policy analysis, capturing the characteristics of nonlinearity and asymetry. The method was applied on a model of demand for Brazilian exports in the 1999-2010 period. The hysteresis hypothesis was confirmed and the main results were: (i) the income-elasticity is greater than the price-elasticity when recent shocks in relative prices are less than 5:2% and greater than 5:7%; and (ii) absolut or relative falls in exports prices affects amounts exported more than increases of similar extent. These factors indicate a high competitiveness in international trade; and policies that promote cost reductions and productivity increases are important in promoting exports. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 10/14221-0 - An alternative test for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian exports: a threshold panel approach |
| Grantee: | João Paulo Martins Terra Baroni |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |