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Climate favorability zoning for the occurrence of sugarcane orange rust in the main producing regions of Brazil and Australia

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Author(s):
Dayana Lardo dos Santos
Total Authors: 1
Document type: Master's Dissertation
Press: Piracicaba.
Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALA/BC)
Defense date:
Examining board members:
Paulo Cesar Sentelhas; Luiz Roberto Angelocci; Glauco de Souza Rolim
Advisor: Paulo Cesar Sentelhas
Abstract

Brazil, the largest exponent of the sugarcane sector in the world, presents as one of the obstacles for obtaining high yields the occurrence of diseases, which limits the potential productivity of the crop. Presently, one the greatest challenge for sugarcane production is newly introduced sugarcane disease, named orange rust, caused by Puccinia kuehni, which was detected by the first time in Brazil during 2009-2010 growing season, when the rainfall exceed the normal values and temperatures remained mild. Considering the great influence of climate conditions on plant diseases occurrence, the present study aimed to evaluate the weather conditions that prevailed during the sugarcane orange rust epidemic in province of Queensland, Australia, in 1999-2000 growing season, and in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2009-2010 growing season, and base on that to develop a disease severity model in order to establish the climate favorability zoning for its occurrence. Based on these data, maps of orange rust climatic favorability were elaborated for the state of São Paulo and province of Queensland. The climatic variables favorable for conditioning orange rust were the number of ten-day periods with soil water surplus (NDEXC) and the number of ten-day periods with average temperature within the ideal range for the disease (NDTideal). With these variables, linear models were developed to determine the severity of the disease, based on disease and weather data observed in different regions of the state of São Paulo. The Climatic Favorability Index for Sugarcane Orange Rust Occurrence (IFAC) was based on the weighting of the disease severities estimated for weather series of 15 to 30 years. After that, IFAC was correlated with the geographical coordinates and altitude which allowed estimating it for all the state of São Paulo. This procedure was also applied for the province of Queensland, Australia. The IFAC was used to generate maps for zoning the regions of climatic favorability for the disease. The maps allowed to observe that for the state of São Paulo, the west region presents vary low to moderate risk for the disease, while the center-east region presents moderate-high to high risk. For the province of Queensland, the most favorable region for orange rust occurrence is the east, exactly where the sugarcane production is concentrated. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 10/13621-5 - Climatic risk zoning for sugarcane orange rust occurrence in the state of São Paulo, Brazil
Grantee:Dayana Lardo dos Santos
Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master