Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil: how do changes driven by the new set of IPCC climatic projections affect their relevance for policy?

Author(s)

Darela Filho, Joao Paulo ^[1] ; Lapola, David M. ^[1] ; Torres, Roger R. ^[2] ; Lemos, Maria Carmen ^[3]

Affiliation

^[1] Sao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Dept Ecol, Earth Syst Sci Lab, BR-13506900 Rio Claro, SP - Brazil

^[2] Fed Univ Itajuba IRN UNIFEI, Nat Resources Inst, BR-37500903 Itajuba, MG - Brazil

^[3] Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 - USA

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Climatic Change; v. 136, n. 3-4, p. 413-425, JUN 2016.
• Web of Science Citations: 5

Abstract

This paper updates the SCVI (Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index) maps developed by Torres et al. (2012) for Brazil, by using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections and more recent 2010 social indicators data. The updated maps differ significantly from their earlier versions in two main ways. First, they show that heavily populated metropolitan areas - namely Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, Salvador, Manaus, Rio de Janeiro and So Paulo - and a large swath of land across the states of So Paulo, Minas Gerais and Bahia now have the highest SCVI values, that is, their populations are the most vulnerable to climate change in the country. Second, SCVI values for Northeast Brazil are considerably lower compared to the previous index version. An analysis of the causes of such difference reveals that changes in climate projections between CMIP3 and CMIP5 are responsible for most of the change between the different SCVI values and spatial distribution, while changes in social indicators have less influence, despite recent countrywide improvements in social indicators as a result of aggressive anti-poverty programs. These results raise the hypothesis that social reform alone may not be enough to decrease people's vulnerability to future climatic changes. Whereas the coarse spatial resolution and relatively simplistic formulation of the SCVI may limit how useful these maps are at informing decision-making at the local level, they can provide a valuable input for large-scale policies on climate change adaptation such as those of the Brazilian National Policy on Climate Change Adaptation. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 13/09742-0 - An update of the Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index for Brazil
• Grantee: João Paulo Darela Filho
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation